Retirement Saver Portfolios: A Look at Performance in 2025
The year 2025 was a strong one for retirement savings, with all core asset classes delivering positive returns. My Model Retirement Saver Portfolios, designed for those still working and saving for retirement, showcased impressive performance, with a focus on stocks ranging from 50% to 95% of their assets. These portfolios saw double-digit gains in a robust equity market, with international stocks leading the way.
A notable shift occurred in 2025 compared to the previous two years. Non-US stocks outperformed, breaking free from the gains they managed in 2023 and 2024 but couldn't match the soaring US market. Another interesting development was the mutual fund portfolios outperforming their all-ETF counterparts in 2025, a reversal from the previous two years. The Primecap Odyssey Growth fund, featured in all three mutual fund portfolios, was the driving force behind their success, showcasing strong gains in technology, healthcare, and industrial sectors.
I also compared the portfolios' returns to a blended benchmark of index funds and ETFs. The goal was to assess if an investor would have achieved similar results with a simple portfolio of three core index funds. In 2025, the mutual fund portfolios outperformed their benchmarks, while the ETF portfolios lagged behind their minimalist benchmarks. For investors seeking simplicity, I've created minimalist versions of these portfolios.
Furthermore, I've tailored tax-efficient versions of these Retirement Saver Portfolios, both for mutual funds and ETFs. These versions are designed to optimize tax advantages for investors' tax-sheltered accounts.
Mutual Fund Saver Portfolios
Aggressive Portfolio
- 20% Primecap Odyssey Growth (POGRX)
- 20% Oakmark Fund (OAKMX)
- 15% Vanguard Extended Market Index (VEXAX)
- 33% Vanguard Total International Stock Index (VTIAX)
- 7% Oakmark International Small Cap (OAKEX)
- 5% TCW MetWest Total Return Bond (MWTRX)
- 2025 Return: 24.19%
Moderate Portfolio
- 12% Primecap Odyssey Growth
- 13% Oakmark Fund
- 13% Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index (VDADX)
- 10% Vanguard Extended Market Index
- 27% Vanguard Total International Stock Index
- 5% Oakmark International Small Cap
- 20% TCW MetWest Total Return Bond
- 2025 Return: 20.45%
Conservative Portfolio
- 10% Primecap Odyssey Growth
- 10% Oakmark Fund
- 10% Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index
- 5% Vanguard Extended Market Index
- 10% Vanguard Total International Stock Index
- 5% Oakmark International Small Cap
- 30% TCW MetWest Total Return Bond
- 10% Fidelity Short-Term Bond (FSHBX)
- 10% Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index (VTAPX)
- 2025 Return: 14.81%
Performance Recap
Primecap Odyssey Growth emerged as the top performer among the Retirement Saver Portfolios in 2025, surpassing the US market and securing a spot in the top 1% of large-blend funds. This outstanding performance helped make up for the fund's underwhelming returns over the past decade. Despite a downgrade in its Morningstar Medalist Rating in mid-2025, it retains a Silver rating due to its seasoned management and disciplined process.
The portfolios' non-US stock allocations mirrored the global market capitalization ratio, benefiting from the strong performance of international stocks and the declining dollar in 2025.
The TCW MetWest Total Return Bond, the core fixed-income fund, had a strong year in 2025, thanks to its longer-than-average duration, which provided a boost during declining interest rates. However, this positioning had a negative impact from 2022-2024. The fund's management team has seen significant changes, but it maintains a Silver rating due to its experienced team and sound process.
Portfolio Changes
No changes were made to the mutual fund portfolios, and all holdings retained their Morningstar Medalist Ratings.
ETF Saver Portfolios
Aggressive Portfolio
- 40% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)
- 10% Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR)
- 35% Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (VEA)
- 10% Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)
- 5% iShares Core Universal USD Bond ETF (IUSB)
- 2025 Return: 22.99%
Moderate Portfolio
- 40% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
- 8% Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF
- 25% Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF
- 7% Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF
- 20% iShares Core Universal USD Bond ETF
- 2025 Return: 19.63%
Conservative Portfolio
- 30% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
- 5% Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF
- 12% Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF
- 3% Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF
- 30% iShares Core Universal USD Bond ETF
- 10% Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (VTIP)
- 10% Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV)
- 2025 Return: 13.99%
Performance Recap
These ETF portfolios are built on affordable, broad-market ETFs but incorporate modest 'factor' tilts through strategic positions in the Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF. The small-value exposure put the funds at a disadvantage in 2025, as the Morningstar Category lagged behind the broad US market. However, all three ETF Saver Portfolios benefited from the strong performance of the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF in 2025, thanks to its large-cap technology exposure.
On the fixed-income side, the core holding, iShares Core Universal USD Bond ETF, performed in line with other intermediate-term core-plus bond funds. In a year where interest-rate-sensitive bonds rallied, the Conservative ETF Portfolio's short-term bond exposure put it at a disadvantage.
